In Episode 5, we do something a little bit different. With the US Climate Summit due on April 22 and the United Nations’ climate conference (COP26) looming in November, Mafalda Duarte outlines the likely agenda and aims of COP. Then she applies CIF’s experience of leading transformational climate projects to offer solutions for how to reach these ambitious goals.
There have been 25 meetings of the UN’s COP summit so far - why is COP26 in November such a big deal?
It is a big deal because we are off track in meeting our global carbon goals. Many of today’s country-level commitments and actions are nowhere near what we need to avoid warming the planet by the limit of two degrees centigrade. Under the current trajectory, in fact, we are heading for 2.9 to 3.4 degrees of warming. This means we are seeing more intense and frequent natural disasters, causing massive destruction and loss of life and wiping out several percentage points of GDP of many countries. COP26 is being viewed as the successor to COP21 when the Paris accord was signed and it is the opportunity for us to take stock of what has been accomplished since then and recommit to more ambition.
The second big reason has precisely to do with the COVID-19 context. We have an opportunity to learn some serious lessons about our preparedness, or lack of preparedness, to cope and respond to systemic impacts. COVID-19 has shown us what a systemic impact can look like and that we are really ‘one village’ on this planet, and the effects of climate change will be like this but on steroids! Climate change will not be a one-off episode and, once we reach a certain point, there will be no return.
We should also note that ahead of this COP, the US has rejoined the Paris agreement and made John Kerry the special presidential envoy for climate and this has provided significant momentum. We expect to hear more about their efforts at the US Climate Summit on 22 April and I'm very glad to see that they have made climate finance an important dimension of that summit.
What do you think will be the big ticket items on the agenda at COP?
The UK as hosts of COP26 has put together campaigns which I certainly agree with. One is energy transition and the need to accelerate our transition to clean power. We have to see the share of renewables in our global energy supply rise from a quarter today to 60% in 2030, and we have to phase out fossil fuel sources and coal in particular.
Secondly, the UK has prioritised transportation. We need to start seeing in the transport sector a similar change to what we have observed in the energy sector. Right now, transport has the lowest renewable energy use of any sector with only 3.3%, and we need to see a massive increase in electric vehicle sales and use.
Another big area is nature, which we have talked about in a previous episode of this podcast on Jamaica. The way our agriculture sector is organised contributes to deforestation and we are losing the equivalent of a country like Greece every year in terms of forest area. A third of all land is now classed as moderately or severely degraded. Meanwhile our food demand is increasing with population growth. We need to recognise that by protecting nature, we are not just helping to meet the climate goals but also protecting ourselves from the impact of climate change.
Last but not least, climate finance will be a big topic. I am happy to see the ambition in the US and the EU in terms of deploying finance for a green and inclusive recovery from COVID-19 and we need that level of ambition in support of developing countries too. Two thirds of the infrastructure investments that will be made between now and 2030 will be in middle- and low-income countries, so it is really important we support them to be able to make the right decisions right now.
How do we get there? How do we achieve these ambitions?
This is a really important question, it’s quite easy to have events and meetings around aims but we hear much less of the ‘how’. We get there through leadership and recognising that we are all leaders in our own right. In different areas of our lives we make decisions that count every day at the individual level. We must not see ourselves as in competition with others or dominating nature, but as one humanity and seriously look at our relationship with nature. Change comes from taking small steps and consistent actions.
This might seem daunting but our experience at the Climate Investment Funds shows it can be done. When we were established in 2008 it was during one of the worst economic crises of our lives with very significant impacts on developing countries. At that point, renewable energy was also nowhere near where it is today. Most people probably thought, how can CIF convince institutions and governments and the private sector to make investments in this area when most developing countries hadn’t yet seen a renewable energy project?
We demonstrated that we can come in and work with local commercial institutions to help them put out lines of credit for entrepreneurs and households to make investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency and resilience. We demonstrated that we can support the first investments in wind and solar and then encourage the private sector to pick it up and scale it up with more investments. We demonstrated that we can work with the communities to support agroforestry and the protection of the forests and that this benefits both the environment and their incomes. This work now needs to be scaled up significantly, but it is possible.
Finally, in your view, what is a good outcome from COP26?
Firstly, renewed ambition through Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs). This is important because we need to signal to citizens, investors, companies, policymakers and regulators what is expected of us. As Nelson Mandela said, action without vision is only passing time, vision without action is merely daydreaming, but vision with action can change the world. We need that vision to be reaffirmed strongly at COP26, then we need ambitious action.
I believe there are four other important results we should expect from COP and in the build-up. Firstly, a strong signal of support to initiatives that empower citizens to change their behaviours and become agents of change - particularly initiatives that empower women, young people and indigenous people. Secondly, we need initiative that provide transparency of data and information. We see a lot of manipulation of data so we need to see accurate disclosure of GHG emissions, for example. Thirdly, we need support for initiatives that bring existing technological solutions to countries and markets where they are not yet being used and harnessed, and support to these initiatives while they are in the early stages in other countries. Finally, we need the means to achieve these goals, which includes climate finance.
This is an extremely exciting agenda and my guarantee to our listener is that CIF will continue to be your learning laboratory on climate solutions - on the how, and how we match action with ambition with vision.
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